SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA ? C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13926 7 15 10 0 1 1 0 0 1 11 1 0
13927 7 15 10 0 1 1 0 0 1 11 1 0
13928 87 86 50 37 35 20 9 6 5 74 31 7
13932 95 95 85 56 56 55 9 9 10 92 56 10
13933 92 92 80 32 35 30 3 5 5 88 32 4
13934 22 15 10 4 1 1 0 0 1 16 2 0
13935 13 15 10 1 2 1 0 0 1 13 1 0
13936 87 86 65 37 35 25 9 6 5 79 33 7
13937 4 8 5 0 1 1 0 0 1 6 1 0
13938 48 44 60 8 4 50 0 0 1 51 21 0
13939 - 15 10 - 2 1 - 0 1 13 1 1

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)