SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA ? C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? MCEVOL MCSTAT MCEVOL MCSTAT C+ M+ X+
14161 13 15 1 2 0 0 14 1 0
14165 23 8 4 1 0 0 16 2 0
14168 70 76 15 15 1 2 73 15 2
14169 8 15 1 2 0 0 12 2 0
14170 22 27 2 3 0 0 25 2 0
14171 4 8 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
14172 48 64 14 11 0 1 56 13 1
14173 7 22 0 1 0 0 14 0 0
14174 2 10 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
14175 - 10 - 0 - 0 10 0 0
14176 - 22 - 1 - 0 22 1 0
14177 - 10 - 0 - 0 10 0 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)