SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA ? C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
14161 13 15 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 9 1 0
14165 23 8 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 14 2 0
14168 70 76 70 15 15 30 1 2 5 72 20 3
14169 8 15 10 1 2 0 0 0 0 11 1 0
14170 22 27 - 2 3 - 0 0 - 25 2 0
14171 4 8 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
14172 48 64 65 14 11 25 0 1 5 59 17 2
14173 7 22 15 0 1 0 0 0 0 15 0 0
14174 2 10 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 6 0 0
14175 - 10 10 - 0 0 - 0 0 10 0 0
14176 - 22 10 - 1 0 - 0 0 16 0 0
14177 - 10 10 - 0 0 - 0 0 10 0 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)